Data Exploration

We’ll look at how much the scoring systems for FanDuel and DraftKings differ from our projections scrape.

It seems that WRs certainly get a point boost from being on DraftKings, which makes sense as DraftKings is full PPR and includes 100+ yard game bonuses. The difference gets slimmer when we look at RB (specifically in the higher tiers) and even more so when looking at QBs.

As we can see, there is some variation near the top, but overall the data is relatively clustered with no large outliers. We see a wide variation in QBs, WRs, and RBs which is to be expected- since there are so many rostered at each position. Now, let’s look at FanDuel and DraftKings separately to see if there are any plays that we can exploit.

In FanDuel cash games, 130 points is an arbitrary number that seems to win you 90% of the time. Thus, any point above this line are our “value” plays. They are projected to get over 2.2x value. However, studs are still studs. This line should help decided what lower tiered players to play, or maybe if there’s a debate between two solid plays. As we get to lower salaries, however, there are less “value” plays. And this makes sense. DFS is about finding these low-priced values in order to be able to rightfully pay up for studs. Additionally, very rarely will we see any DST above this “value” threshold. This is why paying up for defenses doesn’t make sense in the majority of scenarios; rather we should look for defenses that will provide us with the most points per dollar. Again, this frees up money to pay for our more expensive players.

As per DKNation, we should target 125 points, putting us generally in the top 45% needed to win cash games. With DraftKings, we see a modest increase in the amount of value plays, as we see DST closer to our value threshold, as well as more middle-tiered players. Again, we’ll make sure to pay up for studs, but we can see what value plays are out there.

Stacks

We can see how player are projected to do, but that doesn’t help us outright with DFS. Often times, we want to create stacks, where we combine a team’s QB and receiving options (WRs and TEs), so we can correlate our scores. We’ll look at stacking the top receiver and their QB, along with the top two and three with their pass-thrower.

FanDuel

Stack 1

We’ll first look at a QB and top receiver stack:
Total Salary Value Team qb_name qb_pts qb_sal receiver_name receiver_pts receiver_sal
37.85139 16000 2.366 SEA Russell Wilson 23.84285 8700 DK Metcalf 14.00854 7300
35.19855 14900 2.362 HOU Deshaun Watson 22.34300 8000 Will Fuller 12.85555 6900
30.26825 13100 2.311 CIN Joe Burrow 17.85750 7100 Tyler Boyd 12.41075 6000
29.89125 13200 2.264 CAR Teddy Bridgewater 17.19075 6800 Robby Anderson 12.70050 6400
36.88782 16300 2.263 BUF Josh Allen 22.44010 8800 Stefon Diggs 14.44772 7500
32.67565 14500 2.253 LAC Justin Herbert 19.76590 7500 Keenan Allen 12.90975 7000
33.45042 14900 2.245 DET Matthew Stafford 19.63105 7300 Kenny Golladay 13.81937 7600
38.91996 17400 2.237 ARI Kyler Murray 23.05440 8400 DeAndre Hopkins 15.86556 9000
37.59589 17000 2.212 GB Aaron Rodgers 20.75180 8100 Davante Adams 16.84409 8900
31.02000 14100 2.200 TEN Ryan Tannehill 18.71900 7300 A.J. Brown 12.30100 6800
28.05550 13000 2.158 NO Drew Brees 18.00375 7700 Tre’Quan Smith 10.05175 5300
36.64909 17000 2.156 KC Patrick Mahomes 22.48250 9000 Tyreek Hill 14.16659 8000
34.76099 16200 2.146 ATL Matt Ryan 19.95450 7800 Calvin Ridley 14.80649 8400
29.19730 13800 2.116 PIT Ben Roethlisberger 18.09730 7400 Chase Claypool 11.10000 6400
28.67375 13700 2.093 SF Jimmy Garoppolo 16.11150 6600 George Kittle 12.56225 7100
28.01790 13600 2.060 NE Cam Newton 19.08290 7600 Julian Edelman 8.93500 6000
27.91104 13800 2.023 WAS Kyle Allen 14.40315 6700 Terry McLaurin 13.50789 7100
29.59400 15000 1.973 DAL Andy Dalton 17.06675 7200 Amari Cooper 12.52725 7800
22.16490 11500 1.927 NYJ Sam Darnold 14.34690 6700 Breshad Perriman 7.81800 4800
23.67350 12500 1.894 CLE Baker Mayfield 15.40900 7000 Jarvis Landry 8.26450 5500
23.44280 1.875 DEN Drew Lock 14.38980 6900 Jerry Jeudy 9.05300 5600
8.53775 11500 0.742 JAX Mike Glennon 0.91900 6000 Keelan Cole 7.61875 5500

Stack 2

Total Salary Value Team qb_name qb_pts qb_sal receiver_name receiver_pts receiver_sal
68.67105 28800 2.384 HOU Deshaun Watson 22.34300 8000 Will Fuller 12.855549 6900
8000 Brandin Cooks 11.129500 5900
75.04175 32100 2.338 SEA Russell Wilson 23.84285 8700 DK Metcalf 14.008537 7300
8700 Tyler Lockett 13.347517 7400
71.98061 31200 2.307 ARI Kyler Murray 23.05440 8400 DeAndre Hopkins 15.865561 9000
8400 Christian Kirk 10.006250 5400
59.33800 25900 2.291 CIN Joe Burrow 17.85750 7100 Tyler Boyd 12.410750 6000
7100 Tee Higgins 11.212250 5700
68.64992 30200 2.273 BUF Josh Allen 22.44010 8800 Stefon Diggs 14.447720 7500
8800 Cole Beasley 9.322000 5100
63.03355 27900 2.259 LAC Justin Herbert 19.76590 7500 Keenan Allen 12.909750 7000
7500 Mike Williams 10.592000 5900
61.79756 28100 2.199 DET Matthew Stafford 19.63105 7300 Kenny Golladay 13.819369 7600
7300 T.J. Hockenson 8.716088 5900
56.27775 25700 2.190 SF Jimmy Garoppolo 16.11150 6600 George Kittle 12.562250 7100
6600 Deebo Samuel 11.492500 5400
66.15794 30500 2.169 GB Aaron Rodgers 20.75180 8100 Davante Adams 16.844089 8900
8100 Marquez Valdes-Scantling 7.810250 5400
72.66980 33900 2.144 KC Patrick Mahomes 22.48250 9000 Tyreek Hill 14.166591 8000
9000 Travis Kelce 13.538206 7900
69.23449 32300 2.143 ATL Matt Ryan 19.95450 7800 Calvin Ridley 14.806494 8400
7800 Julio Jones 14.519000 8300
58.49358 27600 2.119 TEN Ryan Tannehill 18.71900 7300 A.J. Brown 12.301000 6800
7300 Jonnu Smith 8.754583 6200
52.07600 25000 2.083 CAR Teddy Bridgewater 17.19075 6800 Robby Anderson 12.700500 6400
6800 Curtis Samuel 4.994000 5000
55.75110 27000 2.065 PIT Ben Roethlisberger 18.09730 7400 Chase Claypool 11.100000 6400
7400 Diontae Johnson 8.456500 5800
55.32491 26800 2.064 NO Drew Brees 18.00375 7700 Tre’Quan Smith 10.051750 5300
7700 Jared Cook 9.265657 6100
53.85605 26400 2.040 NE Cam Newton 19.08290 7600 Julian Edelman 8.935000 6000
7600 N’Keal Harry 6.755250 5200
57.63700 28400 2.029 DAL Andy Dalton 17.06675 7200 Amari Cooper 12.527250 7800
7200 CeeDee Lamb 10.976250 6200
48.80394 25400 1.921 WAS Kyle Allen 14.40315 6700 Terry McLaurin 13.507895 7100
6700 Dontrelle Inman 6.489750 4900
44.89250 23900 1.878 CLE Baker Mayfield 15.40900 7000 Jarvis Landry 8.264500 5500
7000 Harrison Bryant 5.810000 4400
46.62610 24900 1.873 DEN Drew Lock 14.38980 6900 Jerry Jeudy 9.053000 5600
6900 Tim Patrick 8.793500 5500
40.35480 22800 1.770 NYJ Sam Darnold 14.34690 6700 Breshad Perriman 7.818000 4800
6700 Chris Herndon 3.843000 4600
14.17625 22400 0.633 JAX Mike Glennon 0.91900 6000 Keelan Cole 7.618750 5500
6000 Chris Conley 4.719500 4900

Stack 3

Total Salary Value Team qb_name qb_pts qb_sal receiver_name receiver_pts receiver_sal
98.75899 42100 2.346 HOU Deshaun Watson 22.34300 8000 Will Fuller 12.855549 6900
8000 Brandin Cooks 11.129500 5900
8000 Darren Fells 7.744943 5300
104.71435 45700 2.291 SEA Russell Wilson 23.84285 8700 DK Metcalf 14.008537 7300
8700 Tyler Lockett 13.347517 7400
8700 Greg Olsen 5.829750 4900
101.13051 44500 2.273 ARI Kyler Murray 23.05440 8400 DeAndre Hopkins 15.865561 9000
8400 Christian Kirk 10.006250 5400
8400 Larry Fitzgerald 6.095500 4900
92.55443 41200 2.246 LAC Justin Herbert 19.76590 7500 Keenan Allen 12.909750 7000
7500 Mike Williams 10.592000 5900
7500 Hunter Henry 9.754979 5800
85.98100 38600 2.227 CIN Joe Burrow 17.85750 7100 Tyler Boyd 12.410750 6000
7100 Tee Higgins 11.212250 5700
7100 A.J. Green 8.785500 5600
87.68261 40200 2.181 DET Matthew Stafford 19.63105 7300 Kenny Golladay 13.819369 7600
7300 T.J. Hockenson 8.716088 5900
7300 Danny Amendola 6.254000 4800
94.92402 43700 2.172 BUF Josh Allen 22.44010 8800 Stefon Diggs 14.447720 7500
8800 Cole Beasley 9.322000 5100
8800 Isaiah McKenzie 3.834000 4700
85.52233 40100 2.133 TEN Ryan Tannehill 18.71900 7300 A.J. Brown 12.301000 6800
7300 Jonnu Smith 8.754583 6200
7300 Corey Davis 8.309750 5200
80.52375 37800 2.130 SF Jimmy Garoppolo 16.11150 6600 George Kittle 12.562250 7100
6600 Deebo Samuel 11.492500 5400
6600 Brandon Aiyuk 8.134500 5500
101.84155 48100 2.117 KC Patrick Mahomes 22.48250 9000 Tyreek Hill 14.166591 8000
9000 Travis Kelce 13.538206 7900
9000 Demarcus Robinson 6.689250 5200
96.55754 45700 2.113 ATL Matt Ryan 19.95450 7800 Calvin Ridley 14.806494 8400
7800 Julio Jones 14.519000 8300
7800 Hayden Hurst 7.368550 5600
93.06774 44600 2.087 GB Aaron Rodgers 20.75180 8100 Davante Adams 16.844089 8900
8100 Marquez Valdes-Scantling 7.810250 5400
8100 Robert Tonyan 6.158000 6000
73.69025 36400 2.024 CAR Teddy Bridgewater 17.19075 6800 Robby Anderson 12.700500 6400
6800 Curtis Samuel 4.994000 5000
6800 Ian Thomas 4.423500 4600
79.01345 39100 2.021 NE Cam Newton 19.08290 7600 Julian Edelman 8.935000 6000
7600 N’Keal Harry 6.755250 5200
7600 Damiere Byrd 6.074500 5100
83.05075 41200 2.016 DAL Andy Dalton 17.06675 7200 Amari Cooper 12.527250 7800
7200 CeeDee Lamb 10.976250 6200
7200 Michael Gallup 8.347000 5600
82.06240 40900 2.006 PIT Ben Roethlisberger 18.09730 7400 Chase Claypool 11.100000 6400
7400 Diontae Johnson 8.456500 5800
7400 JuJu Smith-Schuster 8.214000 6500
77.26866 39100 1.976 NO Drew Brees 18.00375 7700 Tre’Quan Smith 10.051750 5300
7700 Jared Cook 9.265657 6100
7700 Deonte Harris 3.940000 4600
69.26709 37100 1.867 WAS Kyle Allen 14.40315 6700 Terry McLaurin 13.507895 7100
6700 Dontrelle Inman 6.489750 4900
6700 Logan Thomas 6.060000 5000
65.34450 35400 1.846 CLE Baker Mayfield 15.40900 7000 Jarvis Landry 8.264500 5500
7000 Harrison Bryant 5.810000 4400
7000 David Njoku 5.043000 4500
68.88638 37800 1.822 DEN Drew Lock 14.38980 6900 Jerry Jeudy 9.053000 5600
6900 Tim Patrick 8.793500 5500
6900 Noah Fant 7.870484 6000
58.26170 34200 1.704 NYJ Sam Darnold 14.34690 6700 Breshad Perriman 7.818000 4800
6700 Chris Herndon 3.843000 4600
6700 Braxton Berrios 3.560000 4700
19.27175 32700 0.589 JAX Mike Glennon 0.91900 6000 Keelan Cole 7.618750 5500
6000 Chris Conley 4.719500 4900
6000 James O’Shaughnessy 4.176500 4300

DraftKings

Stack 1

We’ll first look at a QB and top receiver stack:
Total Salary Value Team qb_name qb_pts qb_sal receiver_name receiver_pts receiver_sal
33.57700 10900 3.080 CIN Joe Burrow 18.15750 5500 Tyler Boyd 15.41950 5400
30.25800 10100 2.996 NO Drew Brees 18.09625 6100 Tre’Quan Smith 12.16175 4000
36.18690 12600 2.872 LAC Justin Herbert 19.96590 6400 Keenan Allen 16.22100 6200
39.20841 13700 2.862 KC Patrick Mahomes 22.57000 7400 Travis Kelce 16.63841 6300
31.10994 11000 2.828 WAS Kyle Allen 14.75315 5200 Terry McLaurin 16.35679 5800
42.77302 15300 2.796 ARI Kyler Murray 23.17940 7100 DeAndre Hopkins 19.59362 8200
37.93510 13600 2.789 HOU Deshaun Watson 22.43550 6800 Will Fuller 15.49960 6800
32.80500 11800 2.780 CAR Teddy Bridgewater 17.36575 5800 Robby Anderson 15.43925 6000
41.32098 14900 2.773 GB Aaron Rodgers 20.85180 7000 Davante Adams 20.46918 7900
23.91240 8700 2.749 NYJ Sam Darnold 14.44690 5000 Breshad Perriman 9.46550 3700
40.23154 14700 2.737 BUF Josh Allen 22.79010 7700 Stefon Diggs 17.44144 7000
36.02804 13200 2.729 DET Matthew Stafford 19.75605 6500 Kenny Golladay 16.27199 6700
37.86674 14000 2.705 ATL Matt Ryan 20.12950 6700 Calvin Ridley 17.73724 7300
40.81117 15200 2.685 SEA Russell Wilson 23.93785 8000 DK Metcalf 16.87332 7200
31.64875 11800 2.682 SF Jimmy Garoppolo 16.28650 5300 George Kittle 15.36225 6500
30.24790 11300 2.677 NE Cam Newton 19.17790 6300 Julian Edelman 11.07000 5000
33.42625 12500 2.674 TEN Ryan Tannehill 18.91900 6200 A.J. Brown 14.50725 6300
31.53980 12300 2.564 PIT Ben Roethlisberger 18.17230 6600 Chase Claypool 13.36750 5700
32.72025 12900 2.536 DAL Andy Dalton 17.26675 6000 Amari Cooper 15.45350 6900
25.71100 10200 2.521 CLE Baker Mayfield 15.48900 5600 Jarvis Landry 10.22200 4600
25.70780 2.520 DEN Drew Lock 14.63980 5100 Jerry Jeudy 11.06800 5100
10.56525 9200 1.148 JAX Mike Glennon 1.11900 4500 Keelan Cole 9.44625 4700

Stack 2

Now, the top two receivers and their QB:

Total Salary Value Team qb_name qb_pts qb_sal receiver_name receiver_pts receiver_sal
65.42300 21700 3.015 CIN Joe Burrow 18.15750 5500 Tyler Boyd 15.41950 5400
5500 Tee Higgins 13.68850 5300
59.43431 20500 2.899 NO Drew Brees 18.09625 6100 Tre’Quan Smith 12.16175 4000
6100 Jared Cook 11.08006 4300
68.68230 23700 2.898 LAC Justin Herbert 19.96590 6400 Keenan Allen 16.22100 6200
6400 Mike Williams 12.52950 4700
74.03260 25600 2.892 HOU Deshaun Watson 22.43550 6800 Will Fuller 15.49960 6800
6800 Brandin Cooks 13.66200 5200
78.20617 27300 2.865 ARI Kyler Murray 23.17940 7100 DeAndre Hopkins 19.59362 8200
7100 Christian Kirk 12.25375 4900
78.39009 27500 2.851 KC Patrick Mahomes 22.57000 7400 Travis Kelce 16.63841 6300
7400 Tyreek Hill 16.61168 6400
61.57775 22100 2.786 SF Jimmy Garoppolo 16.28650 5300 George Kittle 15.36225 6500
5300 Deebo Samuel 13.64250 5000
71.65428 26000 2.756 GB Aaron Rodgers 20.85180 7000 Davante Adams 20.46918 7900
7000 Marquez Valdes-Scantling 9.48150 4100
74.46864 27300 2.728 BUF Josh Allen 22.79010 7700 Stefon Diggs 17.44144 7000
7700 Cole Beasley 11.44700 4900
53.96534 19800 2.726 WAS Kyle Allen 14.75315 5200 Terry McLaurin 16.35679 5800
5200 Dontrelle Inman 8.10225 3600
75.55274 27800 2.718 ATL Matt Ryan 20.12950 6700 Calvin Ridley 17.73724 7300
6700 Julio Jones 17.55650 7100
80.95831 29800 2.717 SEA Russell Wilson 23.93785 8000 DK Metcalf 16.87332 7200
8000 Tyler Lockett 16.20928 6600
57.94355 21500 2.695 NE Cam Newton 19.17790 6300 Julian Edelman 11.07000 5000
6300 N’Keal Harry 8.51775 3900
62.97667 23400 2.691 TEN Ryan Tannehill 18.91900 6200 A.J. Brown 14.50725 6300
6200 Jonnu Smith 10.63142 4700
66.36651 24700 2.687 DET Matthew Stafford 19.75605 6500 Kenny Golladay 16.27199 6700
6500 T.J. Hockenson 10.58243 5000
48.28000 18300 2.638 CLE Baker Mayfield 15.48900 5600 Jarvis Landry 10.22200 4600
5600 Harrison Bryant 7.08000 2500
56.27225 21500 2.617 CAR Teddy Bridgewater 17.36575 5800 Robby Anderson 15.43925 6000
5800 Curtis Samuel 6.10150 3900
60.43860 23100 2.616 PIT Ben Roethlisberger 18.17230 6600 Chase Claypool 13.36750 5700
6600 Diontae Johnson 10.72650 4200
43.37230 16700 2.597 NYJ Sam Darnold 14.44690 5000 Breshad Perriman 9.46550 3700
5000 Chris Herndon 5.01300 3000
51.26235 19900 2.576 DEN Drew Lock 14.63980 5100 Jerry Jeudy 11.06800 5100
5100 Tim Patrick 10.91475 4600
63.38325 25400 2.495 DAL Andy Dalton 17.26675 6000 Amari Cooper 15.45350 6900
6000 CeeDee Lamb 13.39625 6500
17.52125 16700 1.049 JAX Mike Glennon 1.11900 4500 Keelan Cole 9.44625 4700
4500 Chris Conley 5.83700 3000

Stack 3

And finally, our most correlated stack. Often times, we would want to run this back with a receiver on the opposing team, but we’ll deal with that later.

Total Salary Value Team qb_name qb_pts qb_sal receiver_name receiver_pts receiver_sal
94.47475 31500 2.999 CIN Joe Burrow 18.15750 5500 Tyler Boyd 15.419500 5400
5500 Tee Higgins 13.688500 5300
5500 A.J. Green 10.894250 4300
100.61316 34600 2.908 LAC Justin Herbert 19.96590 6400 Keenan Allen 16.221000 6200
6400 Mike Williams 12.529500 4700
6400 Hunter Henry 11.964958 4500
105.92423 36500 2.902 HOU Deshaun Watson 22.43550 6800 Will Fuller 15.499598 6800
6800 Brandin Cooks 13.662000 5200
6800 Darren Fells 9.456136 4100
109.15309 38300 2.850 KC Patrick Mahomes 22.57000 7400 Travis Kelce 16.638412 6300
7400 Tyreek Hill 16.611682 6400
7400 Demarcus Robinson 8.193000 3400
109.37107 38600 2.833 ARI Kyler Murray 23.17940 7100 DeAndre Hopkins 19.593622 8200
7100 Christian Kirk 12.253750 4900
7100 Larry Fitzgerald 7.985500 4200
82.47056 29600 2.786 NO Drew Brees 18.09625 6100 Tre’Quan Smith 12.161750 4000
6100 Jared Cook 11.080063 4300
6100 Deonte Harris 4.940000 3000
87.69625 31500 2.784 SF Jimmy Garoppolo 16.28650 5300 George Kittle 15.362250 6500
5300 Deebo Samuel 13.642500 5000
5300 Brandon Aiyuk 9.832000 4100
93.98531 34500 2.724 DET Matthew Stafford 19.75605 6500 Kenny Golladay 16.271989 6700
6500 T.J. Hockenson 10.582425 5000
6500 Danny Amendola 7.862750 3300
112.17716 41400 2.710 SEA Russell Wilson 23.93785 8000 DK Metcalf 16.873324 7200
8000 Tyler Lockett 16.209284 6600
8000 Greg Olsen 7.281000 3600
104.75559 38900 2.693 ATL Matt Ryan 20.12950 6700 Calvin Ridley 17.737238 7300
6700 Julio Jones 17.556500 7100
6700 Hayden Hurst 9.073350 4400
102.09649 38000 2.687 BUF Josh Allen 22.79010 7700 Stefon Diggs 17.441440 7000
7700 Cole Beasley 11.447000 4900
7700 Isaiah McKenzie 4.837750 3000
84.73345 31600 2.681 NE Cam Newton 19.17790 6300 Julian Edelman 11.070000 5000
6300 N’Keal Harry 8.517750 3900
6300 Damiere Byrd 7.612000 3800
76.38474 28500 2.680 WAS Kyle Allen 14.75315 5200 Terry McLaurin 16.356789 5800
5200 Dontrelle Inman 8.102250 3600
5200 Logan Thomas 7.666250 3500
92.00667 34400 2.675 TEN Ryan Tannehill 18.91900 6200 A.J. Brown 14.507250 6300
6200 Jonnu Smith 10.631416 4700
6200 Corey Davis 10.111000 4800
99.82158 37600 2.655 GB Aaron Rodgers 20.85180 7000 Davante Adams 20.469178 7900
7000 Marquez Valdes-Scantling 9.481500 4100
7000 Robert Tonyan 7.315500 4600
79.23400 30300 2.615 CAR Teddy Bridgewater 17.36575 5800 Robby Anderson 15.439250 6000
5800 Curtis Samuel 6.101500 3900
5800 Ian Thomas 5.596000 3000
69.94200 26900 2.600 CLE Baker Mayfield 15.48900 5600 Jarvis Landry 10.222000 4600
5600 Harrison Bryant 7.080000 2500
5600 David Njoku 6.173000 3000
75.73212 29800 2.541 DEN Drew Lock 14.63980 5100 Jerry Jeudy 11.068000 5100
5100 Tim Patrick 10.914750 4600
5100 Noah Fant 9.829968 4800
88.80990 35200 2.523 PIT Ben Roethlisberger 18.17230 6600 Chase Claypool 13.367500 5700
6600 Diontae Johnson 10.726500 4200
6600 JuJu Smith-Schuster 10.199000 5500
90.68700 36000 2.519 DAL Andy Dalton 17.26675 6000 Amari Cooper 15.453500 6900
6000 CeeDee Lamb 13.396250 6500
6000 Michael Gallup 10.037000 4600
62.25420 24900 2.500 NYJ Sam Darnold 14.44690 5000 Breshad Perriman 9.465500 3700
5000 Chris Herndon 5.013000 3000
5000 Braxton Berrios 4.435000 3200
24.01550 23800 1.009 JAX Mike Glennon 1.11900 4500 Keelan Cole 9.446250 4700
4500 Chris Conley 5.837000 3000
4500 James O’Shaughnessy 5.375250 2600

Again, we’ll want to see which of these stacks is the most expensive, so we’ll graph the stacks projected points against their total salary. We’ll look for more value in our stacks, since they’re heavily correlated and are able to outperform their projections.